Daily Market Wrap

US equity markets came under heavy pressure overnight as investors reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran signalled it would continue fighting and maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments. The renewed geopolitical risk saw a broad risk-off move across markets, with all three major US indices closing sharply lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the losses, falling 1.56% to close at 46,677, while the S&P 500 declined 1.52% to finish at 6,692. Technology stocks were also under pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.78% to end the session at 22,311.

Currency markets saw strong demand for the US Dollar as investors sought safety and yields moved higher. The US Dollar Index pushed to fresh highs for the year, rising 0.50% to close at 99.74. Treasury yields also climbed, led by the short end of the curve as markets repriced interest rate expectations.

Energy markets experienced the most dramatic moves of the session again. Crude oil prices surged after the Iranian comments raised concerns about disruptions to global supply routes through the Gulf region. Brent Crude rallied sharply, settling back above the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark, while West Texas Intermediate also posted double-digit gains.

Despite the heightened geopolitical risk, gold struggled as the stronger US Dollar weighed on the precious metal. Gold slipped nearly 2% on the session as rising US yields and the dollar dominated safe-haven flows.

Looking ahead to the final trading day of the week, markets will remain highly sensitive to headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. However, attention will also turn briefly back to economic fundamentals, with several key data releases due later in the global trading day.

Market Snapshot

Today’s Events (AEST)

European Session

• 6:00 pm – UK – GDP Data

US Session

• 11:30 pm – US – Core PCE Price Index
• 11:30 pm – US – Preliminary GDP
• 11:30 pm – US – Durable Goods Orders
• 11:30 pm – Canada – Employment Change
• 11:30 pm – Canada – Unemployment Rate
• 1:00 am – US – JOLTS Job Openings
• 1:00 am – US – Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• 1:00 am – US – Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations

Daily Market Wrap

US equity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight as investors continued to weigh developments in the Middle East in what was another choppy trading session. The Dow Jones came under the most pressure, finishing lower on the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to hold close to flat levels as traders balanced geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing adjustments to interest rate expectations.

In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields pushed higher once again, with the 2-year yield climbing to a five-month high as traders continued to pare back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move higher in yields helped support the US Dollar, which gained ground against the major currencies during the session.

Energy markets remained highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Oil prices surged despite the International Energy Agency announcing plans to release a record level of strategic reserves, as traders continued to price in the risk that the conflict in the Middle East could drag on and potentially disrupt supply.

Gold moved modestly lower on the day, with the precious metal weighed down by the combination of higher US yields and a stronger US Dollar, which reduced some of its appeal despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The macroeconomic calendar remains relatively light again today, leaving markets likely to remain focused on geopolitical developments and any further signals around the path of US monetary policy.

Market Performance

Today’s Key Events (AEST)

European Session

• 8:30 pm – UK: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

US Session

• 11:30 pm – US: Weekly Unemployment Claims Data

Daily Market Wrap

US equity markets finished largely unchanged overnight as investors paused following several sessions of heightened volatility. Market participants continue to monitor developments in the conflict in the Middle East, with headlines around potential peace progress changing on an almost hourly basis. As a result, traders appeared reluctant to take large directional positions ahead of further clarity on the geopolitical front.

US Treasury yields moved higher again after the previous session’s pullback, with both the 2-year and 10-year yields rising as bond markets remained sensitive to inflation expectations and global risk sentiment. The US dollar also edged higher on the day, although currency markets remained volatile.

Oil prices experienced another highly volatile session as traders reacted quickly to headlines surrounding the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices initially fell sharply after reports suggested the US had escorted a tanker safely through the strait, easing supply concerns. However, those losses were quickly reversed after the report was later retracted, allowing crude prices to finish the session higher.

Gold pushed higher during the session as investors continued to seek some protection from geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the gains, the precious metal remains broadly within the trading range that has held over recent weeks.

Attention now turns to the upcoming US inflation data, with the first of two key inflation releases for the week due early in the New York session. While the economic calendar remains relatively light otherwise, geopolitical developments are likely to remain the primary driver of market sentiment in the near term.

Market Summary

Today’s Events (AEST)

US Session

• 11:30 pm – US – CPI Data
• 1:30 am – US – Crude Oil Inventory Data

Daily Market Wrap

Financial markets experienced another highly volatile trading session overnight, with sharp swings seen across equities, commodities, and currencies as investors reacted to developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. US equity markets ultimately finished the session higher after earlier losses, buoyed by comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict could be nearing an end.

Bond markets also saw choppy trading throughout the day, although US Treasury yields eventually moved lower by the close. The US dollar weakened modestly against the major currencies after experiencing significant intraday fluctuations.

Oil markets were once again the key focus for investors. Both major crude benchmarks surged to levels approaching $120 per barrel during the day before reversing sharply following the more positive geopolitical updates. The dramatic reversal left both contracts closing lower on the day, despite having traded within ranges exceeding 40% at the peak of volatility.

Looking ahead, traders are bracing for another potentially volatile session with market attention remaining firmly fixed on developments in the Middle East. The macroeconomic calendar is relatively light, leaving geopolitical headlines as the primary driver of market sentiment.

Daily Market Wrap

It was a volatile end to the trading week on Friday as US equities moved sharply lower following a significant downside surprise in US employment data, while ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh heavily on market sentiment.

US Non-Farm Payrolls came in far weaker than expected printing -92k against forecasts of +58k, adding to concerns about the outlook for the US economy. Equity markets reacted negatively to the data, with all three major indices finishing firmly in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.94% to 47,501, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.33% to close at 6,740. The Nasdaq underperformed on the day, declining 1.59% to finish at 22,387.

In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields ended the session relatively unchanged overall as inflation concerns stemming from rising energy prices competed with the weaker labour market data. The 2-Year yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.561%, while the 10-Year yield edged up 0.2 basis points to 4.138%.

The US dollar pulled back modestly on the disappointing payrolls figure but remained close to recent annual highs, with the Dollar Index slipping 0.21% to 98.86.

Commodity markets were once again dominated by developments in the Middle East. Oil prices surged sharply as traders continued to price in potential supply disruptions, pushing prices to their highest levels since September 2023. Brent crude rose 8.52% to $92.69, while WTI climbed 12.21% to $90.90.

Gold also found renewed buying interest after briefly testing weekly lows earlier in the session. The precious metal rebounded 1.75% to close at $5,171.74, returning to the middle of its recent trading range.

Looking ahead, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet to start the week. However, traders are still expecting elevated volatility as markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.

Market Snapshot

Today’s Events (AEST)

Asian Session

• 12:30 pm – China – CPI Data
• 12:30 pm – China – PPI Data

Daily Market Wrap

Global equity markets came under pressure overnight as the conflict in the Middle East entered its sixth day, heightening concerns that the situation may persist longer than initially expected and potentially add further inflationary pressures to the global economy. Risk sentiment weakened as investors moved cautiously, with US equity indices all closing lower on the day.

The Dow Jones led the declines, falling 1.61%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.56% and the Nasdaq proved relatively resilient, slipping just 0.26%. The US dollar continued to strengthen, rising 0.29% as investors favoured the greenback amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

US Treasury yields also moved higher for a fourth consecutive session, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and expectations that elevated energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The 2-year yield rose 3.2 basis points to 3.579%, while the 10-year yield increased by 4.0 basis points to 4.136%.

Energy markets remained a focal point, with oil prices pushing higher once again as traders continued to price in supply disruptions. Brent crude rose 3.02% to $83.89 per barrel, while WTI crude jumped 5.76% to $78.96.

Gold, which typically benefits from safe-haven demand during geopolitical tensions, moved lower on the session, falling 1.20% to $5,077.03 as the stronger US dollar weighed on the precious metal.

Looking ahead, traders will continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely. However, attention will also shift to key US economic data due later today, with the release of the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report expected to generate significant volatility if results deviate meaningfully from market expectations.

Market Performance

Today’s Events (AEST)

US Session

Daily Market Wrap

US equity markets moved decisively higher, shaking off ongoing concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict after reports emerged that Iran may be prepared to reopen negotiations with the United States. The improvement in risk sentiment supported a broad-based rally across Wall Street, led by technology stocks.

The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains, while Treasury yields pushed higher across the curve again.

In commodities, oil prices climbed to levels not seen in over a year as traders continued to factor in the risk of a prolonged regional conflict. Gold also rebounded strongly following the previous session’s pullback, regaining its footing amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

With today’s macroeconomic calendar relatively light, markets are likely to remain headline-driven, particularly on any further geopolitical developments throughout the sessions.

Market Snapshot

Today’s Events (AEST)

European Session
• 11:30 pm – EU – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US Session
• 12:30 am – US – Weekly Unemployment Claims Data
• 4:00 am – EU – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

Daily Market Wrap

Global equity markets endured another heavy session overnight, with risk sentiment deteriorating sharply as the conflict in the Middle East intensified. Hopes of a near-term de-escalation faded, driving renewed inflation concerns and prompting a broad risk-off move across asset classes.

There was a degree of late-session support after Donald Trump indicated that the United States would escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helping to steady sentiment temporarily. Nevertheless, major equity indices finished firmly lower on the day.

In the United States, all three benchmark indices posted sizeable declines following Monday’s relatively muted reaction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.83% to close at 48,501, while the S&P 500 declined 0.94% to 6,816. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led losses, shedding 1.02% to settle at 22,516.

Currency and fixed income markets reflected heightened inflation expectations. The US Dollar Index rose 0.71% to 99.08, while Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 2-year yield up 3.5 basis points to 3.510% and the 10-year yield rising 2.9 basis points to 4.063%.

Energy markets continued to react strongly to geopolitical risk. Brent crude surged 5.72% to $82.19 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 5.42% to $75.07, with prices reaching levels not seen since January 2025.

In contrast, gold failed to benefit from the traditional safe-haven bid, retreating sharply as the stronger US dollar weighed on the precious metal. Gold fell 4.27% to close at $5,099.27.

Attention in the coming sessions will remain firmly on geopolitical developments in the Middle East. However, several key macroeconomic releases across the Asian, European and US sessions are also likely to contribute to elevated volatility.

Market Summary

Today’s Events (AEST)

Asian Session
• 11:30 am – Australia – GDP Data

European Session
• 6:30 pm – Switzerland – CPI Data

US Session
• 12:15 am – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 2:00 am – US – ISM Services PMI
• 2:30 am – Canada – Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks
• 2:30 am – US – Crude Oil Inventory Data

Daily Market Wrap

US equity markets pushed higher overnight, led by a strong rally in the technology sector as AI-related concerns eased. Sentiment was further supported after the close by stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results from Nvidia, setting the tone for Asian markets to open on the front foot.

The Dow Jones gained 0.63%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.81%, while the Nasdaq outperformed with a 1.26% surge, reflecting renewed appetite for growth stocks.

In currency markets, the US dollar softened against its major peers despite higher Treasury yields. The move higher in yields came as risk sentiment improved, with investors rotating back into equities.

Oil prices were relatively subdued as traders continued to monitor developments between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, gold edged higher, supported by ongoing haven demand despite the stronger equity backdrop.

With little of significance on the economic calendar, traders expect the positive momentum to extend through today’s sessions, though geopolitical headlines remain a key risk to sentiment.

Equity Markets

Currency Markets

Fixed Income

Commodities

Today’s Key Events (AEST)

European Session

• 7:30 pm – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

US Session

• 12:30 am – Weekly Unemployment Claims
• 2:00 am – Fed Member Michelle Bowman Speaks

Daily Market Wrap

US equity markets rebounded strongly overnight, with all three major indices closing higher as technology stocks led the advance. Sentiment was boosted after news that Meta plans to invest heavily in AI technology sourced from Advanced Micro Devices, providing renewed momentum to the broader tech sector.

The Dow Jones rose 0.76% to 49,147, the S&P 500 gained 0.77% to finish at 6,890, while the Nasdaq outperformed with a 1.04% rally to 22,863.

In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened modestly, with the DXY index up 0.19% to 97.88. Treasury yields were mixed across the curve, with the 2-year yield rising 2.3 basis points to 3.461%, while the 10-year yield edged slightly lower by 0.2 basis points to 4.029%.

Commodity markets moved lower as geopolitical developments weighed on prices. Oil declined after Iran indicated it was prepared to negotiate a deal with the US, easing some supply concerns. Brent crude fell 0.27% to $71.30 per barrel, while WTI dropped 1.03% to $65.63. Gold also retreated, declining 1.57% to $5,143.85 as improved risk sentiment reduced safe-haven demand.

It shapes as another busy session ahead, with key inflation data due out of Australia, US weekly unemployment claims overnight, and speeches from the RBA Governor, ECB President, and US President all likely to keep volatility elevated.

Market Snapshot

Today’s Key Events (AEST)

Asian Session
• 11:30am – Australia – CPI Data
• 1:00pm – US – President Trump Speaks
• 7:40pm – Australia – RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks

European Session
• 7:30pm – EU – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

US Session
• 12:30am – US – Weekly Unemployment Claims Data